Most macroeconomic indicators observe economic activity only after transactions have occurred. By the time spending, lending, or production data are published, the behavioral adjustment that produced them is often already underway.
Medubaris Research investigates where that adjustment pressure becomes visible first — before it reaches conventional spending data.
Our Research Approach
Medubaris develops measurement frameworks built on directly observed market behavior rather than self-reported sentiment or lagging transaction data. The underlying premise is straightforward: physical inventory, unlike a survey response, cannot be revised after the fact. It accumulates or clears in full public view.
Our objective is to expand the set of observable measures available to macroeconomic researchers through transparent, empirically grounded measurement frameworks.
The first framework built on this approach is described below.
Research Program: Luxury Inventory Signal Index (LISI)
Medubaris Research develops transparent measurement frameworks that convert publicly observable market behavior into empirical measures of macroeconomic activity. The Luxury Inventory Signal Index (LISI) is the institution's first published research signal.
LISI measures premium automotive inventory accumulation as an empirical measure of changes in discretionary consumer demand.
Transmission Mechanism
Dealers incur continuously rising inventory carrying costs through floor-plan financing and depreciation. Households considering a discretionary purchase incur almost no comparable cost for delaying that decision.
This asymmetry concentrates adjustment pressure on dealer inventories. As a result, publicly observable inventory accumulation can emerge before that same shift in demand appears in traditional measures of consumer activity.
Current Observations
Inventory Accumulation: 28.6
Inventory is clearing rapidly, suggesting tight supply or exceptionally strong demand.
8-Week Momentum: -0.04σ
The pace of accumulation has remained relatively stable over the past two months, with no significant acceleration or deceleration.
Metro Diffusion: 15%
The pattern is currently highly concentrated and is only showing up in a small minority of tracked metro markets.
Learn More
This page introduces the conceptual framework underlying LISI. For the full signal construction methodology, validation approach, and technical detail, continue to the White Paper.