Alternative data for institutional macro research

Medubaris Research tracks discretionary consumer hesitation through high-frequency alternative data—surfacing leading signals before they appear in lagging government metrics.

The core thesis rests on a behavioral distinction between discretionary hesitation and involuntary curtailment. The "HENRY" demographic (High Earners, Not Rich Yet) retain the financial capacity for large discretionary purchases under moderate economic stress, but exercise optionality to delay rather than commit to multi-year financing liabilities when forward income confidence declines.

This optionality is structurally asymmetric. The household can always purchase later at a relatively small cost, but the dealership cannot return unsold inventory to the manufacturer without significant financial penalty. Inventory accumulation therefore functions as a one-way pressure gauge.